Quote Originally Posted by Quick View Post
Wikipedia gave me a better understanding of this problem (look under "Monty Hall Problem").

There is a 1/3 chance you pick the right shell to begin with, therefore there is a 2/3 chance it's in another shell.

The shell that is lifted up is merely a distraction, it changes nothing.
In terms of your problem it doesn't but it does mean that if you get the option to switch to the other shell that hasn't been lifted up, you should as there is a higher probability that the ball is under the other shell.