OK, this is a bit long, but at least it is interesting. :D

Me and my friends are playing a card game called Yaniv.

Yaniv (card game) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The rules of the game are:

1. Each player starts with 5 cards.

2. Each turn each player first throws a card and then takes a card.

3. If a player has more than 1 card with the same number/picture he can throw all of them in the same turn and then take only 1 card (meaning hold less than 5 cards from now on).

4. A player can take a card either from an upside down package or from the cards that the player prior to him throw away.

5. when a player holds a deck of cards that the sum of all of them is less then 7 he can declare "Yaniv" and win the turn. then he gets 0 points and all other players get points as the sum of the cards they are holding. (Only bad points in Yaniv, you want to get as few points as possible).

6. Jack, Queen and king are valued as 10 points.

7. If by any chance a player gets exactly 50, 100, 150 and so on, then he gets a bonus and his points drop to half (25, 50, 75 and so on).

That was long :)

My question is this:

Let's say I have 84 points, and I hold a only king and a 6 in my hand. Is it smart of me to try to keep the sum 16 so I will drop 34 points to 50 in the end of the of the turn when some one gets a Yaniv? This is assuming that 4 out of 13 cards have the value 10, so I can throw away a 10 (king in this case) and hope to get a ten as well. bear in mind that:

1. If the player before me has a 10 as well he will throw it, as it is his/hers highest card - so It is actually even more then 4 out of 13 chance.

2. Usually the 10s get thrown away in the beginning of the game as nobody wants to keep them, so I don't know whether this has influence on the statistics to get a ten or not.

Thank you! I know it is long :)

Appreciate your help, want to be better in the game