Originally Posted by

**Psychobabble** ah, now I see my problem and why I though it'd be much lower. I'm actually asking the wrong question.

To be more precise, the question I'm asking is (and sorry for the frivolity here!) what are the chances of a tied score happening in my fantasy australian rules football league? there's 16 people in a league who are randomly paired up each week. So far there's been 10 weeks of competition and in that time teams have scored the same score in the same week four times which is the number I'll use as the chance that any two teams will score the same score in a particular week (this isn't exactly right, but it's the best way of doing it because calculating the objective chance is impossible given the number of variables). I was looking for the right denominator in this equation though, and 22m (the previous answer x10 weeks) is not that number because I was asking the wrong question.

So the question I'm actually asking is something like - given a 40% chance that two teams will score the same points in any particular week, what is the chance that those two teams will be matched up against each other?

Does that make sense? Sorry to lead people down the garden path with my first question!