hi everyone !
i am a newbie so please be patient with me as i am not great at math !
i hope i am posting this tread in the correct section !
i like to have a wager on sports now and then
there is a bet i would like to place with my local nbookie here in london where i live
but i need help with the math before i place the bet or i could lose a lot of money !
ok here is the bet
the bet is on 10 different soccer games (footbal in the uk )
there are actually a few bets i want to do on the same games to hopefully
make an overall profit
i want bet on a bet called "double chance " here in the Uk
" double chance" is when a punter ( gambler ) bets on 2 out of 3
of the possible results of a soccer game
the 3 possible results of a soccer game are
1. THE TEAM PLAYING AT HOME WIN THE GAME
2. THE GAME ENDS IN A TIE ( we call it a draw ) in the UK
3. THE AWAY TEAM WINS THE GAME
in the uk the 3 possibilities are shown as
1X2
i want to bet on result 1 and result 3 as above
that is either of the two teams playing the game will win it
and therefore this means that the result will not be a tie ( draw )
the bookmaker ( bookie ) odds for this type of bet that i will be
betting on will be 1.3
i want to bet on an accumulator ( in usa i think they call it a parlay ??? )
i want to bet this 1+2 result multiplied by 10 as i want to bet
on 10 different games at the same time
the winning odds the bookie will pay me if the bet wins will be
1.3 x 1.3 x 1.3 x 1.3 x 1.3 x 1.3 x 1.3 x 1.3 x 1.3 x 1.3 = 13.79
which is 14.79 to 1 in betting odds or 14.79/1
obviously if out of all the 10 games i want to bet on for the
above bet if only 1 game ends in a tie ( draw ) which means that
all the games have not ended with either the home team or away team
winning the game I WILL LOSE THE BET AND MY STAKE / WAGER
now finally here is what i really need help in re the math !
i want to make another new bet on each game starting with
the very first game in the accumulator ( parlay ) that the game
will end in a tie !
this means i have already bet game number ( and of course the other 9 games )
will end in the home team or away team will win but now i alwo want to bet that the game
will end in A DRAW ( TIE ) !!!!
crazy ???
no
why ?
well the bookie odds that the game will end in a draw ( tie ) are minimum 3.5
or 9 in fractional odds
( in europe the bookies list odds as decimal say 3.5 which is decimal but the bookies can alwo list the
same odds as a fraction = 5/2 )
you can visit the following bet calc website for bookie odds help
http://www.betcalc.com/oddsconverter.php
anyway ......
so my idea is that i know if all my 10 games end in a win for the home
or away team i will win 139.70 usd say for a 10 usd wager
and i want to place a bet for there to be a draw on the first game ( odds will be 3.5 )
if the first game not in a draw i will lose my bet on the draw
but win my first bet of 10 bets in my parlay ( accumulator )
the winnings from this will be placed on the second bet if this wins the winnings
will be placed on the thirds bet etc etc etc
if all my 10 bets for either the jome or away bet win i will win my accumulator bet ( parlay )
but if any of the 10 bets loses because one game ended in a draw ( tie ) the accumulator bet
will lose and i will lose my 10 usd or 10 pounds or 10 euros or what ever currency it does not matter
now this is my idea where i need the math help
as i alwo want bet on the games ending in a draw at odds of 3.5 the question is
WHAT STAKE ( how much money do i bet ) on each game
to make a guaranteed profit if the game ends a draw ( it must cover the cost of my first
wager / bet of 10 usd on the accumulator / parlay ) plus make a profit inc the bet / wager on the draw bet
obviously the bet / wager on the draw / tie bet must be more than say 3.5 or 4.00 usd at drw / tie odds of 3.5
to make an overall profit on the first bet - ok
but what will be my stake on the drwa bet / wager if i have to bet on game2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 or 7 or 8 or 8 or 9 or even game 10
i want to be able to make an overall profit what even happens
this is called arbitrage no ?
there must be some form of progressive staking / loss recovery ?
what is the math please to make the overall 2 different bets ( parlay and bet on tie ) make a profit
whatever happens !
remember : my first bet is the parlay
it costs say 10 units ( usd ,euros,pounds ...it is not important the currency )
second bet is the bet on the tie the odds are 3.5 for each game
help help help please
sorry if the request is long winded
please contact me if you have any questions
i would really appreciate it if anyone can help me
even if it is only to tell me that mathematically it is
not possible to make an overall profit with these two wagers
thanks
looking forward to you replies
good luck
dave from london