Hi everybody,

I am doing the quantitative methods project. It is mainly concerned with the forecasts and decisions. The only data that i have got were sales for 20 different time periods. I have done different forcasting methods and now i have chosen the "best one" . The one with smallest mean square error. In my case it was a linear trend model. And i got the following data for the forcasted sales (also for the next period). From the data below i need to make a discussion of - the forecasts and suggestions about the future in terms of advertising, marketing etc. As i have already mentioned i have also made other forecasting methods (Moving averages 2, MA3 and MA4 , together with linear trend, multiplicative model) I have made a graphs for each model so that i can more easily try to make a suggestions for the future!

Here is the graph for the best forcasted method (linear trend)

http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/199...rendpp4.th.png
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THE LINEAR TREND EQUATION:

T = 33072.737 + 63.549 t

where T = trend value of the time series in period t

TIME PERIOD TIME SERIES VALUE FORECAST FORECAST ERROR

=========== ================= ======== ==============

1 32,340 33,136.29 -796.29

2 33,560 33,199.84 360.17

3 33,250 33,263.38 -13.38

4 34,670 33,326.93 1,343.07

5 32,340 33,390.48 -1,050.48

6 33,570 33,454.03 115.97

7 33,280 33,517.58 -237.58

8 34,670 33,581.13 1,088.87

9 32,700 33,644.68 -944.68

10 33,920 33,708.23 211.77

11 33,630 33,771.78 -141.78

12 35,030 33,835.33 1,194.68

13 33,340 33,898.87 -558.87

14 34,360 33,962.42 397.58

15 32,050 34,025.97 -1,975.97

16 35,470 34,089.52 1,380.48

17 33,540 34,153.07 -613.07

18 34,760 34,216.62 543.38

19 32,450 34,280.17 -1,830.17

20 35,870 34,343.72 1,526.28

THE MEAN SQUARE ERROR 997,111.23

THE FORECAST FOR PERIOD 21 34407.27

So i would need some help in interpreting so that i could give some suggestions about the future in terms of advertising, marketing etc.

Thanks,

Ecce Homo