Originally Posted by

**DjJazzyDeath** Yes, I have been going off 23% for making predictions for the next year's event. But here's my problem - after 161 cancelled their seats I was left with 535 registered and then only 410 showed up. So we could say that 23% also "No Showed". So if I want to predict how many "confirmed" people I need *after* 23% cancel to reach 500 attendees I need to:

Find what 23% of 500 is. (115)

Add 115 to 500 (615)

This tells me that after 23% of my audience Cancel, I need 615 still "confirmed" to reach my 500 goal because another 23% are going to "No Show". So does it make sense to apply 23% to 615?

23% of 615 is 141.25 (round up to 142 since we're talkin' about people here)

615 + 142 = 757 **for my total audience in order to achieve 500 attendees**

Seems like it makes sense, right? My issue is if this is correct then this tells me I need to grow my audience YoY. Shouldn't that mean I will have a higher number of total cancellations and no shows YoY because I'm dealing with the same percentages but a larger total audience?

2012 No Shows = 125

2013 Predicted No Shows = 115

2012 Cancellations = 161

2013 Predicted Cancellations = 142

This is weird, right?