Results 1 to 5 of 5

Math Help - Trend analysis--any advice please on how I should approach this

  1. #1
    Newbie
    Joined
    Aug 2010
    Posts
    21

    Trend analysis--any advice please on how I should approach this

    Average number of daily visitors to hotel shown:

    Year ======= Quarter ==== Av.No Daily ====== Trend
    1 -------------- 1 --------- 90 ------------ 103
    -------------- 2 ---------120 ---------- 108
    -------------- 3 --------- 200 ---------- 101
    -------------- 4 --------- 28 ---------- 85
    2 -------------- 1 -------- 22 ----------- 73
    -------------- 2 -------- 60 ----------- 67
    -------------- 3 -------- 164 ----------- 64
    --------------- 4 -------- 16 ------- 65**
    3 --------------- 1 -------- 10 --------- 71
    --------------- 2 -------- 80 --------- 76
    --------------- 3 ------- 192 ----------- 78
    --------------- 4 ------- 25 ---------- 82
    --
    (i) If trend values were calculated using centred four point moving averages, show how value of 65 was calculated

    (ii) estimate four quarterly (seasonal) components using ALL the given trend values

    (iii) Assuming the trend is broadly linear over the three year period, estimate average number of daily visitors for each quarter of year 4[DO NOT USE REGRESSION ANALYSIS]

    Thanks ( sorry for the messy presentation)

    Thanks
    Follow Math Help Forum on Facebook and Google+

  2. #2
    Master Of Puppets
    pickslides's Avatar
    Joined
    Sep 2008
    From
    Melbourne
    Posts
    5,234
    Thanks
    27
    Quote Originally Posted by redskies View Post
    (i) If trend values were calculated using centred four point moving averages, show how value of 65 was calculated
    Here's some help with the first one,

    average(60, 164 ,16, 10) = 62.5

    and

    average(164,16, 10, 80) = 67.5

    The average of those 2 numbers give 65.

    What are your ideas for the next parts?
    Follow Math Help Forum on Facebook and Google+

  3. #3
    Newbie
    Joined
    Aug 2010
    Posts
    21
    Hi, thanks so much for that.I just came across this recently and had no idea about ti.
    I don't have access to a textbook on it and the googling was basically unsuccessful.

    For (i) , I came across a formula:

    \frac{x_1+2x_2+2x_3+2x_4+x_5}{8}

    Can that be used to show how the value was arrived at also?

    (ii) I think this sounds too easy, but should I get average of all Q1 values over given years, then Q2, then Q3?

    (ii) I could maybe use the formula that I wrote above and proceed.(but maybe that is taken as regression analysis)

    Example, to get average number of visitors for Q1 of year 4

    \frac{10+160+384+50+x_5}{8}=78

    \frac{604+x_5}{8}=78

    x_5=10

    therefore....Q1 of Year 4 is 10 ,and so on...

    this is probably all wrong.

    Thanks for the help.
    Follow Math Help Forum on Facebook and Google+

  4. #4
    Newbie
    Joined
    Aug 2010
    Posts
    21
    Any suggestions please?
    Follow Math Help Forum on Facebook and Google+

  5. #5
    Newbie
    Joined
    Aug 2010
    Posts
    21
    Any suggestions please?
    Follow Math Help Forum on Facebook and Google+

Similar Math Help Forum Discussions

  1. Replies: 2
    Last Post: December 18th 2011, 05:13 PM
  2. anova or fractional factorial analysis advice
    Posted in the Advanced Statistics Forum
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: December 18th 2011, 07:05 AM
  3. Regression analysis Methodology - Is this the right approach?
    Posted in the Advanced Statistics Forum
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: August 11th 2011, 03:05 AM
  4. Seeking General Advice on Non Standard Analysis
    Posted in the Advanced Math Topics Forum
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: July 13th 2011, 10:18 AM
  5. Advice needed on statistical approach
    Posted in the Statistics Forum
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: April 15th 2011, 05:08 AM

Search Tags


/mathhelpforum @mathhelpforum