Originally Posted by

**TK_M** Thank you Janvdl! This sounds like the sort of value I would have expected.

Did you mean the chance of one death in a family of 5 is 81.87%, not 0 deaths is 81.87% though? Only 18.13% seems a bit low?

Sorry for not being clearer with my question. I was asking if 1 in 5 people die from cancer, what is the chance of 1 or more deaths in a family of 5? (assuming all cases of cancer happen randomly, that is not inherited, or due to environmental factors).

Generally, you could state my problem as:

I have an unknown quantity of marbles in a bag. 1 in 5 is red, the rest are blue. If I pick 5 marlbes out of the bag randomly, what is the chance that at least one of them will be red?

Thank you so much for your help!

Tony