It's been a long time since I had to do any algebra, and nothing I've found on Google seems to be pitched at the right level for me. I'm looking to find a number for 'x' and a number for 'y' (consistant across these two equations):
(1/3) * (5/113) * (x/y) = 0.05
2/3 + ((1/3) * (5/113) * ((y-x)/y)) = 0.63
Can anyone please help me out? Thanks!
I appreciate the helpful nudge, but I'm getting more and more bogged down. Here's the rabbit hole I've followed from that:
100x = 339y
x = 3.39y
(1/3) * (5/113) * (3.39) = 0.05
2/3 + ((1/3) * (5/113) * ((y-(3.39*y))/y)) = 0.63
((1/3) * (5/113) * (3.39)) - (2/3) = -0.61666666666666666666666666666667
(1/3) * (5/113) * ((y-(3.39*y))/y) = -0.036666666666666666666666666666667
(((1/3) * (5/113) * (3.39)) - (2/3)) / (1/3) = -1.850000000000000000000000000001
(5/113) * ((y-(3.39*y))/y) = -0.11
(((1/3) * (5/113) * (3.39)) - (2/3)) / (1/3) / (5/113) = -41.810000000000000000000000000023
(y-(3.39*y))/y = -2.486
I've come unstuck at this point.
Edit:
I think I've narrowed it down this far:
x = 3.39y
(y-x)/y = (0.63-(2/3)) / (1/3) / (5/113)
I just don't know how to untangle that "(y-x)/y" beyond substituting x:
(y-(3.39*y))/y = (0.63-(2/3)) / (1/3) / (5/113)
And that doesn't seem to help much, assuming I'm even on the right track.
Hello, Dufus!
Who created this problem? . . . What a horrible way to write it!
And don't use decimals!
Besides, the problem has no solution . . .
Solve the system: .
As Wilmer pointed out, [1] becomes: . .(a)
[2] simplifies to: .
. . . . . . . . . . .
Substitute (a): .
. . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . And we have: . . . . . . . .
The system is inconsistent . . . It has no solution.
That'll be my fault. It actually began life as a computer programming problem, but I thought I'd found the best way to represent it in mathematical terms. Evidently not, sorry!
Rather than go into the programming code, I'll explain the problem like this:
There are 113 marbles in a jar. Five of them are red, the rest are blue.
There's a one in three chance you'll be selected to play the game.
If you are, then blindfolded, you shake the jar and draw one marble completely at random.
If it's blue, you keep it and the game is over.
If it's red, there's an [x/y] chance I'll let you keep it, or a [1-(x/y)] chance I'll make you put it back. Whether you get to keep it or not, the game is over.
I want there to be a 5% probability of you drawing a red marble and keeping it. So what should x and y be?
I must be missing something: but that makes no sense to me.
The probability of drawing a red is 5/113 ; that's a ~4.42% probability.
Whatever you do AFTER the draw will certainly not INCREASE that.
If you said "I want there to be a 3% probability.....", then we have:
(let k = x/y)
5k/113 = 3/100
k = 339/500
Hello, Dufus!
Wilmer is absolutely correct.
There is still something terribly wrong with the problem . . .
To get a red marble and keep it, three events must occur:There are 113 marbles in a jar; 5 are red, the rest blue.
There's a one-in-three chance you'll be selected to play the game.
If you are, you draw one marble completely at random.
If it's blue, you keep it and the game is over.
If it's red, there's an chance that I'll let you keep it,
. . and a chance I'll make you put it back.
Whether you get to keep it or not, the game is over.
I want there to be a 5% probability of you drawing a red marble and keeping it.
So what should and be?
. .
. .
. .
. . This is to be .
Hence, we have: . .??
. . A probability cannot be greater than 100%.
I see your point.
No matter what x/y is (provided it's a probability, ie: y is greater than x), the result can never be greater than the multiplication of the first two fractions. The penny's dropped.
So it's never going to reach 5%, even if, in the marbles analogy, you were allowed to keep the red marble every time you pulled one out of the jar. The maximum chance is still less than 1.5%. It's stupidly obvious really...
Well thank you everyone for your help and your patience with me. I'm sorry it's turned out to be such a wild goose chase! It has refreshed my memory a little on how this all works though, so it hasn't been a complete waste of time. Thanks again.