Can anyone offer any advice on how to solve the probability questions i have?
Such as principles i should research or use?
Thanks
The system below is one i'm trying to figure out for betting purposes.
I'm not particularly far down the line with it, as i dont know where to begin when trying to calculate the probability/risk of each number.
The following is taken of my thread over on a betting forum, but no one could help there.
Any input or guidance much appreciated.
Thanks
System is to make all 4 fold squares and lines from below table
You pick 16 teams and give them a number.
teams 1 7 10 16 occur the least so should be your least fav selections.
teams 5 8 9 12 occur the most and the system needs all to win and max one fail so these should be your most confident picks.
...........1.........................C
......2.......3..................B.....B
...4.....5......6.............B....A.....B
7....8.......9.....10.....C...A......A.....C
...11...12.....13...........B.....A.....B
......14.....15..................B.....B
..........16.........................C
There are 9 squares and 10 lines
SQUARES
1 3 5 2
2 5 4 8
4 8 7 11
3 6 5 9
5 9 8 12
8 12 11 14
6 10 9 13
9 13 12 15
12 15 14 16
LINES
1 3 6 10
2 5 9 13
4 8 12 15
7 11 14 16
1 2 4 7
3 5 8 11
6 9 12 14
10 13 15 16
1 5 12 16
7 8 9 10
Teams 1 7 10 16 occur 4 times
Teams 2 3 4 6 11 13 14 15 occur 4 times
Teams 5 8 9 12 occur 7 times
You can eliminate lines
1 5 12 16
7 8 9 10
This will now make 17 bets not 19 but reduced
C teams to 3 bets
B teams remain at 4 bets
A reduced to 6 bets
INITIAL AIM OF THE SYSTEM
Was to find a more progressive return plan than traditional 4 fold out of 16 bets.
there are 2380 4 folds in 16 selections.
If you get 4/5/6/7/8/9 correct you will not return much and be at a loss.
But if you get 13/14/15/16 correct you will receive a huge payout.
I wanted to reduce the overall payout for high hit ratio on selections and increase the payout for getting 60-70% correct (9-11 out of 16)
PROBLEMS (need help solving or working out to then find alternate system)
Team A's occur in 6/17 or 7/19 bets.
The system blatantly requires the 4 A teams to win, but 37% of bets lost from one A team failure is too big and i'd like that amount to be more like 25% of bets.
Every team has at least 4 teams it doesnt share a bet slip with. Im happy with that. But some teams tie themselves to others too much.
For example team 5 (a A team) has the following other teams in its bets.
Team 1= 2 bets
Team 2 = 3 bets
Team 3 = 3 bets
Team 4 = 1 bet
Team 6 = 1 bet
Team 8 = 3 bets
Team 9 = 3 bets
Team 11 = 1 bet
Team 12 = 2 bets
Team 13 = 1 bet
Team 16 = 1 bet
Teams not tied to are = team 7 10 14 15
I think team 2/3/8/9 being in 3 bets the same as team 5 maybe too many out of 19 bets????
---------------------------------------------------------------
WORKING OUT RISK
To be honest i really dont know where to start, when trying to work out the risk each team has.
I'd like to calculate the risk of getting 8/16 selections correct but still not getting a payout.
I'd also like to calculate the probability of getting only 6 selections correct but luckily hittin two payouts.
If you get 4 or 5 you can only get max one payout.
Hitting 5 needs a 6th correct to bring in a seperate square.
I know that achieving 12/16 (75%) correct will return a minimum of 8 4 folds providing you have successfully won all 4 A bets (numbers 5 8 9 12).
STAKING PLAN
At average odds of 1.80 per team, each 4 fold will return 10.50 for every £1.
returning one 4 fold will make a loss of 45%
2 4 folds will profit 10%
Ideally the closer your average 4 fold return is to 16/1 the better.
Which is 2.00 average team.
To add alittle extra security when staking on the 4 fold that includes the 4 A teams
5 8 9 12
This bet should profit total stake on system (other 16/18bets).
Again though, it adds extra emphasise on the A selections being correct.
__________________________________________________ _
Conclusion
I think the system could have potential but its overly reliant on the A teams and perhaps too many teams are tied in with each other which doesnt spread the risk.
If 1 A team fails that leaves 63-65% of bets left.
If 2 A teams fail that leaves only 30-32% of bets left and unless luck is with you, no pay out. (i'd like to work out that probability)
It seems like a good system to use when your confident of your selections and/or you can add teams to it your betting on over a full weekend or even week.
It does need a minimum of 9/10 bets correct to LIKELY return a 4 fold or 2.
COMPARED TO SINGLES
At 1.80 and flat staking you would need 10.5 selection correct to breakeven.
Although you obviously get money back for each win so reduce risk of losing all stake.
With this system 10.5 correct picks im certain would win x 4 folds and yield profit.
If all or min of 3 As were won, i beleive it should win 3-4 4 folds.
Again,id like to calculate this probability.
Ive explained it best i can.
Any input much appreciated.
If the system once probability is calculated, still holds up against probability of other systems i will start a new thread to track picks and financials.
Cheers
FIG