I’ve created a system that ranks NFL teams from best to worst. To do this I calculated seven different statistic and measured how they related to winning. I did these calculations for every game, then found the overall average for a game. I then went back and compared every game to this average, and found win/losses based on being above or below average. Games where teams played above the NFL average on the seven statistics had the following winning %.
Stat.......NFL Ave ......OffW% .......DefW% .......WOffDef
DSR.....69.1% .......66.5% .......65.4% ......89.14%
ANPY/A ...5.338 .....70.3% ........70.7% .....89.10%
Turnovers ..1.76 .....67.8% ......67.5%.........82.5%
YDS/Drive...28.36 ....63.2% ......63.6% ......81.5%
TOP/Drive .....2.77 ...65.4% ......65.3% .......79.6%
Yds/Play .......5.09 ...62.2% .......61.6% .......77.4%
FD/Drive ......1.62 ....61.0% ........61.2% ......76.4%
3rd&4thdw ...39.1% ..62.6% .......61.8% .......75.11%
The next step is what I need help with. I would like a formula to plug these seven stats into producing a sinlge number for each teams’ offense and defense. Ideally, I would like each stat weighted based on the winning % above.
:
DSR 61.29%
ANPY/A 3.45
Turnovers Per Gm 2.24
Yds/Drive 22.41
TOP/Drive 2.12
Yds/Play 3.95
FD/Drive 1.34
3rd & 4th Dwn 23.4%
Any ideas on the formula I should use ?
Thanks,
Randy