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Math Help - Bayes' Thm??

  1. #1
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    Bayes' Thm??

    Please help me with the following problem? do you think i should solve it with Bayes' theorem?

    Many Thanks!


    Suppose that two players compete in a table tennis game. The player who first scores 3
    points wins the game. According to their previous results, we know that the first player is
    twice as good as the second one. In other words, the probability of the first player
    winning the next point equals
    3
    2
    in any phase of the game. Compute the probability of
    the first player winning the whole game if:
    a) The current standing is 2-1;
    b) The current standing is 0-1.
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  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by saskadimova View Post
    Please help me with the following problem? do you think i should solve it with Bayes' theorem?


    Many Thanks!


    Suppose that two players compete in a table tennis game. The player who first scores 3
    points wins the game. According to their previous results, we know that the first player is
    twice as good as the second one. In other words, the probability of the first player
    winning the next point equals
    3
    2
    in any phase of the game. Compute the probability of
    the first player winning the whole game if:
    a) The current standing is 2-1;
    b) The current standing is 0-1.
    I suggest using a tree diagram for both.

    a) I get \frac{2}{3} + \frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{2}{3} = \frac{8}{9}.

    b) Try it again - use a tree diagram.
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