# Branching Process

• Mar 4th 2009, 10:29 AM
exia
Branching Process
P0=.5, P1=.1,P3=.4

Suppose X0=1

then
What is the prob. that the population is extinct in the third generation, given that it was not extinct in the second generation?

It looks simple, but I am getting different answer from my classmates...

Thank you~~!
• Mar 5th 2009, 01:18 AM
CaptainBlack
Quote:

Originally Posted by exia
P0=.5, P1=.1,P3=.4

Suppose X0=1

then
What is the prob. that the population is extinct in the third generation, given that it was not extinct in the second generation?

It looks simple, but I am getting different answer from my classmates...

Thank you~~!

Please post the entire question, or if that is it provide the context so we can underatand the system that is being modelled and the significance of the variables.

CB
• Mar 5th 2009, 06:13 AM
exia
Quote:

Originally Posted by CaptainBlack
Please post the entire question, or if that is it provide the context so we can underatand the system that is being modelled and the significance of the variables.

CB

Given a branching process with the following offspring distributions,

p0=.5, p1=.1, p3=.4,

and suppose X0=1,

what is the probability that the population is extinct in the third generation, given that it was not extinct in the second generation?

Sorry for the confusion..