Originally Posted by

**dhrutika** Here is the problem.

(The situation is real, so the real initials of the jockey and trainer are used in the problem to keep my personal level of confusion to minimum.)

CR is a jockey riding at a racetrack.

PS is a trainer training at the same place.

CR is occasionally engaged by PS to ride his horses.

Here are the statistics for the current season as they stand right now.

Jockey CR has 22 winners from 109 rides.

Trainer PS has 17 winners from 68 runners.

CR has ridden 19 runners trained by PS and has won with 6 of them.

On today's card, CR is engaged to ride two horses trained by PS, say in the 2nd and in the 5th race. For simplicity's sake, we assume that PS has only these two runners on today's card, and even CR has only these two rides for the day.

Based on this data, what is the probability of CR riding a winner for PS in the 2nd race?

Next what is the revised probability of CR riding a winner for PS in the 5th race when:

a) the 2nd race horse is a winner

b) the 2nd race horse is a loser

Note: I am new to this forum, and also newly initiated in the Bayesian methods. So please allow your explanations to be as detailed as possible to have a better chance of me understanding it.

Thanks in advance.

Dhru