Originally Posted by

**PensFan10** This problem is probably really easy. I just cant seem to get it.

Untrained dog has 70% probability of detecting intruder, and given detection, a 50% chance of scaring the intruder away. what is the probability an untrained house dog successfully scares a burglar?

Im guessing it uses Bayes' Th'm.

So, P(A|B)= P(A) P(B|A) / P(B)

P(untrained dog scares intruder)= P(A)=?

P(untrained dog detects intruder)= P(B)= .7

P(given detection untrained dog scares intruder)= P(A|B)= .50

I need to solve for P(A).

P(A) = P(A|B) P(B) / P(B|A)

I dont have P(B|A) either. What am I missing?