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Math Help - Expected Value

  1. #1
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    Expected Value

    There are 29 teams in the NBA during a portion of the 2004 season two statistics showed the probability of scoring two points by making a field goal was .44 and the probability of scoring three points by making a three point shot was .34

    1. what is the expected value of a two point shot for these teams?
    2. 1. what is the expected value of a three point shot for these teams?

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  2. #2
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    For two-point attempts: E[x] = 2 * 0.44 = 0.88
    For three-point attempts, follow the same logic:
    value if point is made * probability of making shot...

    This gives you an EXPECTED VALUE for a certain shot... You can think of an expected value as essentially a "mean" value. Or a "price tag" value. For example, suppose you buy a lottery ticket for a dollar and you have a 30% chance of winning two dollars, and a 70 percent chance at winning nothing. (This is strictly an example) So, how much is each ticket actually worth (exclude the cost of paper, ink, etc)? Well, for a ticket, you win $0.00 seventy percent of the time (0*.70) and 2 dollars 30 percent of the time (2 * 0.30). Add them up: (0 * 0.70) + (2 * 0.30) = 0 + 0.60 = 0.60. The ticket you just spent a dollar on has an expected value of 60 cents. Is this clear?

    -Andy
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