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Math Help - The probability of a rise or fall in blood pressure??

  1. #1
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    The probability of a rise or fall in blood pressure??

    I have developed a database program that searches for all blood pressure readings that are similar to the readings of any given patient. The program then retrieves the following dayís data from all the matching patients to find out what (if any) the probability of the patient being analysed will have a higher or lower blood pressure and what the likely percentage increase/decrease will be.

    To do this, I have simply counted the number of patients that have a rising/falling blood pressure and averaged the rise or fall to give a percentage e.g. 14 out of 20 patients blood pressure had risen and therefore the probability of this patientís blood pressure being raised tomorrow with be 70% and it will raise by approximately 5.63% i.e. that average raise of these 14 patients.

    Iím not too sure whether this (never studied statistics nor probability theory) is correct or not and would be most graceful if anyone can give me some help and advise.

    Kind regards and thanks in advance for any help

    Laurence
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  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaurieDThompson View Post
    I have developed a database program that searches for all blood pressure readings that are similar to the readings of any given patient. The program then retrieves the following dayís data from all the matching patients to find out what (if any) the probability of the patient being analysed will have a higher or lower blood pressure and what the likely percentage increase/decrease will be.

    To do this, I have simply counted the number of patients that have a rising/falling blood pressure and averaged the rise or fall to give a percentage e.g. 14 out of 20 patients blood pressure had risen and therefore the probability of this patientís blood pressure being raised tomorrow with be 70% and it will raise by approximately 5.63% i.e. that average raise of these 14 patients.

    Iím not too sure whether this (never studied statistics nor probability theory) is correct or not and would be most graceful if anyone can give me some help and advise.

    Kind regards and thanks in advance for any help

    Laurence
    I think you're OK with estimating the probability of a blood pressure rise, fall, neither. However, I don't think you can estimate the amount of a rise or fall in the way you're doing .....

    I'd suggest fitting the data to an appropriate distribution (there's many standard available software that can do this) and using this distribution to estimate the probability that the blood pressure will lie in a given range. (again, the software would do that for you).

    However, I'm not a trained statistician. You should take what I say with a grain of salt. If you're affiliated with a hospital, you should see if there's a statistician on the payroll that can give you professional advice.
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