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Thread: Statistics for Research

  1. #1
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    Question Statistics for Research

    Hi guys,

    Just want to ask about what is the best statistical tool that I should use for this study.

    I have 5 independent variables: Inflation (%), Energy Consumption (in KwH), Manufacturing Workforce (%age from All kinds of workforce), Electric Meters Installed, Revenue Collection. I have the data for every year for the past 20 years (as of end of every year). I also have a dependent variable which is the Deposit Market Share of Rural Banks vs the entire banking system for the past 20 years. My instinct tells me that I should use Multiple Regression for this after I take out the unnecessary variables via multi-collinearity. I would just like to get a professional and more versed idea here.

    Thanks. much respect
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  2. #2
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    Re: Statistics for Research

    This is time series data. The variables are likely to exhibit serial correlation (correlation over the years). For that reason, a good starting point would be Autoregressive Moving Average Model with extra predictors. Before putting the variables into the model you should transform them into stationary processes. Typically, differencing

    X_t - X_{t-1}

    or log-returns

    log(X_t) - log(X_{t-1})

    do the trick. But not always... Some variables have the meaning of log-returns already, like Inflation. Those variables may be stationary in their original form. To test for stationarity you can run augmented Dickey-Fuller tests.
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