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Thread: probability problem

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    probability problem

    hi, i didnt know where exactly to post this but i have a probability issue which i cannot solve myself without working out the probability for every possible event which seems tedious. Please tell me if you can hasten it.
    If you are familiar with a game called magic:thegathering you would probably have an advantage.

    i have a 60 card deck. At the beggining of the game i draw 7 cards. 12 cards(a) in the deck are of equal importance and 1 of them is all that is required, but to use them i require 5 points which can be garnered from the other 6 drawn cards.
    4 cards in the deck recycle by discarding to draw another card but add no points,essentially bringing the deck total down to 56 cards.
    there are 4 cards(b) in the deck that are worth 1 point each but require the discarding of another card to use, there are another 14(c) that are worth 1 point but only 1 of these can be used and they cannot be discarded to card b. there are another 8 cards(d) worth 1 point and 4 cards(e) worth 2 points although these 4 require me to be at 3 points already to use.There are another 4 cards(f) which when drawn the first will add 1 point, the second 2 points etc. there are another 10 blank cards(can be used to sate card b).

    id like to calculate the odds of drawing at least 1 of my 12 (a) cards[independently 90%] whilst also drawing 5 points worth of other cards.(the odds are slightly skewed as 4 of the 12 cards require only 4 points to use but this is close enough at the moment).

    i understand this is tedious and difficult but even the system+formalae with which i could work it out would be much appreciated.
    Last edited by mtgplayer; Jan 2nd 2008 at 06:57 PM.
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