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Math Help - Bayes Theorem

  1. #1
    Apr 2014

    Bayes Theorem

    Using Only Bayes Theorem

    Mr James is a 59 yr old man wilth coronary artery disease.When the heart muscles does not receive oxygen,the patient often experiences chest pain(angina) because blood cannot reach the heart muscles.Mr James had twice coronary-artery bypass graft(CABG),a surgery in which new vessels usually taken from legs are grafted onto the old ones such that the blood is shunted past the blocked region.Despite medication,he has begun to have chest pains which are more severe each time.If the heart muscle is continously deprived of oxygen,result is heart attack,in which a heart section of heart muscle dies.

    Calculate the following probabilities for a patient about to undergoes CABG surgery

    a)The only possible,mutually exclusive outcomes of surgery are death,relief of symptons(angina pectoris) and continuation of symptons.Probability of death is 0.02,probability of relief of symptons is 0.8.What is the probability that the patient will continue to experience symptons of angina and dyspnea?

    (b)probabilities of 0.02 and 0.05, respectively. What are the chances that the
    patients will have both complications? Assume that the complications are
    conditionally independent.

    (c) The patient wants to know the probability that he will have a stroke if he has a
    heart attack as a complication of his surgery. Assume that 1 in 500 patients has
    both complications,probability of heart attack is 0.05 and the events are independent.
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  2. #2
    MHF Contributor
    Nov 2010

    Re: Bayes Theorem

    What are you having trouble with? Part (b) is missing the two complications (I think they got cut off). Have you done any work on this problem yourself? Please post what you have and where you first have concerns.
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