Thread: Some probability in the game Big 2

Big 2 is a card game commonly played in Asia.
Big Two - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

There are 4 playeers and each is dealt 13 cards. The trump cards in this game is 2, hence the name Big 2. My question is:
What's the probability of 1 player dealt 4 '2's?

Method 1:



Method 2:
Using the ball-and urn model championed by William Feller,
we imagine 4 people as 4 urns, and the 4 '2's to be dealt as 4 balls:
So now, we are asking what's the probability of all 4 balls landing inside 1 urn:

The probability of 4 balls inside 1 urn(and not 3 others):

Since it can be any of the 4 urns, we multiply by 4 and get

Now, why don't the 2 methods tally?
Can anyone please explain?

Much appreciated!

Originally Posted by chopet

There are 4 playeers and each is dealt 13 cards. The trump cards in this game is 2, hence the name Big 2. My question is: What's the probability of 1 player dealt 4 '2's?

Method 1:

That is the correct probability if one hand, 13 cards, are dealt.

Originally Posted by Plato

That is the correct probability if one hand, 13 cards, are dealt.

I think the problem lies with Method 2, not Method 1.
I am treating each placement as independent, when in fact, they are not.
Or are they? Urgh. I am confused.