Some probability in the game Big 2
Big 2 is a card game commonly played in Asia.
Big Two - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
There are 4 playeers and each is dealt 13 cards. The trump cards in this game is 2, hence the name Big 2. My question is:
What's the probability of 1 player dealt 4 '2's?
Using the ball-and urn model championed by William Feller,
we imagine 4 people as 4 urns, and the 4 '2's to be dealt as 4 balls:
So now, we are asking what's the probability of all 4 balls landing inside 1 urn:
The probability of 4 balls inside 1 urn(and not 3 others):
Since it can be any of the 4 urns, we multiply by 4 and get
Now, why don't the 2 methods tally?
Can anyone please explain?