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Math Help - Discrete probability distribution problem

  1. #1
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    Discrete probability distribution problem

    Hi!

    The problem:

    Cecile is a nurse and has a 0,25 of working a night shift. In the latest time period there have been 10 cases of death at night time by the nursing home,and a remarkably large number of these have happened while Cecilie has been on duty. 7 of the cases of death have been on her duty. Therefore, an investigation has been started to find out if she has anything to do with these deaths.
    Assume in the following that all the deaths are natural and that they have happened at
    di erent nights.


    Let X be a stochastic variable that describes the number out of n = 10 natural deaths that
    happen on Cecilie's night shifts.

    What is the probability of 7 or more deaths, out of the 10 deaths at night time, happening while Cecilie is on duty?

    The right answer should be: 0,004

    I am not sure how to calculate this, I tried finding the chance of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 deaths happening while she is on duty, but I am not sure how to find the chance of it being 7 or more.

    I would really appreciate any feedback, thank you!
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  2. #2
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    Re: Discrete probability distribution problem

    Quote Originally Posted by Nora314 View Post
    The problem:

    Cecile is a nurse and has a 0,25 of working a night shift. In the latest time period there have been 10 cases of death at night time by the nursing home,and a remarkably large number of these have happened while Cecilie has been on duty. 7 of the cases of death have been on her duty. Therefore, an investigation has been started to find out if she has anything to do with these deaths.
    Assume in the following that all the deaths are natural and that they have happened at
    dierent nights.
    The right answer should be: 0,004
    You can see the calculation here.
    Thanks from Nora314
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  3. #3
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    Re: Discrete probability distribution problem

    Wow, thank you so much! I really appreciate it! I hope you have a good day.
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  4. #4
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    Re: Discrete probability distribution problem

    I was wondering if you could help me with a futher part of the question:

    Lets assume that about 300 other nurses have the same sort of position as Cecilie, in
    nursing homes around Norway. What is the probability of at least one of these 300
    nurses having 7 or more out of 10 natural deaths happening while they are on duty?

    Does the answers in this subsection give any reason to strengthen the suspicion towards
    Cecilie? Justify your answer.
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