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Math Help - Percentile Versus Exceedance .. whats the difference?

  1. #1
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    Percentile Versus Exceedance .. whats the difference?

    Hi there, I am a student hoping to get into engineering. I havent had much formal math education in the way of probability of statistics, but I've been trying to teach myself using free online resources.

    I am hoping all you experts out there can help me with my problem!

    I am looking at wind power production for a project, predicted for a 7 year period. I'm trying to construct the MWh value which is exceeded 99% of the time. I am trying to find this value for every hour in every month (12 x 24 table).

    To do this using an exceedance interval, P99:

    0.99 = x/(days in month +1) solve for x; where x is the 'rank' of that value, in descending order (generally around 28 out of 31), then find the MWh value that corresponds to rank x.

    To do this using a percentile: The 99th percentile is the value that is greater than 99% of the dataset. So to turn this around for my purposes, could I say I am looking for the 1st percentile; that is the value that is greater than 1% of the dataset, meaning 99% of the data is greater than this value.

    My question is, is all the above valid. Can I say P99 = 1st percentile?

    Thanks in advance for your help, I really appreciate it!
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  2. #2
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    Re: Percentile Versus Exceedance .. whats the difference?

    Sorry but I have never seen the term "exeedance". Can you give the definition?
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  3. #3
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    Re: Percentile Versus Exceedance .. whats the difference?

    Quote Originally Posted by HallsofIvy View Post
    Sorry but I have never seen the term "exeedance". Can you give the definition?
    My Apologies, I'm probably goofing up the terminology.

    By P99 Exceedance, I mean the MWh Value that is exceeded 99% of the time. Perhaps the term I am looking for is confidence interval.

    Thanks for your response,
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