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Math Help - Demand Forecasting

  1. #1
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    Demand Forecasting

    Hello,

    I'm in the middle of a project, and I'm stuck. It is about demand forecasting, and more specifically Croston's method (a more sophisticated form of exponential smoothing).

    Croston's.xlsx download - 2shared -- the blue button.

    I have a couple of questions (the Excel sheet can be downloaded from the link above; don't worry, no viruses):

    1) How am I supposed to actually FORECAST using Zt when I need to use the demand for the current period /(Yt - Zt-1)/?

    2) In order to see how accurate my forecast is, I use MAD and MSE. Should I use any other measures (besides MAPE as I have a lot of null values)?

    3) Are the results of MAD and MSE good in this specific example?

    4) I obtain best results for MSE and MAD when I use an alpha value of 1. Is this normal and should I do it, or should I stick to 0,1-0,2?


    Thank you for your time and patience
    Last edited by luftkastel; November 12th 2012 at 11:24 AM.
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