Are you familiar with Markov Chains?
Markov chain - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Hello, I'm stuck on a problem and I wasn't getting any answer in the pre-university statistic topic so I'd be very grateful if someone could help:
To go to work employs take their car or the bus. If they take their car they have 1/2 chances to be late, if they take the bus only 1/4 chances to be late. If they are on time one day they will take the same mean of transportation the next day, if they are late they switch. If p is the probability that an employ goes to work on day one with his car:
a) what is the probability that he'll go to work with his car on day n?
I started by writing the probability with the conditional probability that he went to work on day n-1... but that's the best i can come up with I don't know what else I can do.
b) what is the probability that he will be late on day n.
c)what is the limit when n---> inf for a) and b).
I thought of something but it doesn't work:
then if is our function of probability:
then recursively you get
but if n---->inf then is greater than 1... find the big mistake....
thanks a lot in advance.