Thread: poisson distribution

Hi, I need help with the following:

the charlevoix seismic zone (CSZ) is the most seismically active region of eastern Canada. Earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 have occurred in 1663, 1791, 1860, 1870, and 1925, There large earthquakes therefore occur every 52.4 years on average.

What is the probability of one large earthquake (magnitude 6.0 or greater) is CSZ during the next 10 years a) for someone living in 1926, and b) for someone living in 2013 c) compare

Hey dumbledore.

The question gives data about 6.0 earthquakes but not for greater than 6.0 yet you are asked to get probabilities for 6.0 and above.

Anyway this problem looks like a Poisson problem. Are you covering the Poisson or Binomial distributions?

In 1926 ave was = 65.5 years so:

Pr[x=1|10] = 0.13106 (1926)
Pr[x=1|10] = 0.15768 (2013)