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Math Help - Please help me to solve this problem!!

  1. #1
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    Please help me to solve this problem!!

    The following data gives the number of deaths due to accidental falls occurring in in the United States by Month
    in 1970.
    Month Number of deaths
    Jan 1668
    Feb 1407
    Mar. 1370
    Apr. 1309
    May 1341
    June 1338
    July 1406
    Aug. 1446
    Sept. 1332
    Oct. 1363
    Nov. 1410
    Dec 1526
    (a) Using Stata or otherwise, calculate the expected number of deaths for each month if the probability of
    accidental death is the same for each month. Report the results in a table.
    (b) Is the data consistent with a uniform probability of death from accidental fall over time? Justify your answer
    with the results from an appropriate statistical test.
    (c) Is there evidence of a seasonal pattern of deaths? Explain why.
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  2. #2
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    Re: Please help me to solve this problem!!

    Hey faranakf.

    If you are calculating a proportion, then you need to supply what the data is in relation to (i.e. you have the deaths but how many people are considered each year? Is it the size of the total US population)?

    Anyway getting the expectation of the number of deaths just uses the definition.

    You should tell us what you've tried and what you're thinking.
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  3. #3
    Senior Member MaxJasper's Avatar
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    Lightbulb Re: Please help me to solve this problem!!

    These data follow a Poisson distribution based on following hypothesis test:

    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Please help me to solve this problem!!-deaths-usa-1970.png  
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  4. #4
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    Re: Please help me to solve this problem!!

    It is not wise to just find the "best fitted distribution" (also that p-value is rather low).

    The distributions are based on assumptions and knowing the assumptions means knowing the process, and knowing the process (or trying to understand the real process) is what it's all about: if you can relate the process of your data in any way to the process of a known distribution derived from its assumptions in a convincing way, you are going to be way better off understanding and putting into context the realizations of your sample data.

    Fitting stuff without any context at all is very dangerous.
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  5. #5
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    Re: Please help me to solve this problem!!

    Actually that is the main problem that I have. The question doesn't provide the whole population so I don't know without it how can I compute the mean...
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  6. #6
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    Re: Please help me to solve this problem!!

    You can estimate the mean from the sample using the sample mean which is an unbiased estimator for the population mean.
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  7. #7
    Senior Member MaxJasper's Avatar
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    Lightbulb Re: Please help me to solve this problem!!

    1970 deaths data indicate a seasonal period=6 months and a crude ARIMA(6,0,0)(0,0,0) forecast analysis for 1971 summary is:


    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Please help me to solve this problem!!-death-usa-1970-forecast.png  
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