Please help me to solve this problem!!

The following data gives the number of deaths due to accidental falls occurring in in the United States by Month

in 1970.

Month Number of deaths

Jan 1668

Feb 1407

Mar. 1370

Apr. 1309

May 1341

June 1338

July 1406

Aug. 1446

Sept. 1332

Oct. 1363

Nov. 1410

Dec 1526

(a) Using Stata or otherwise, calculate the expected number of deaths for each month if the probability of

accidental death is the same for each month. Report the results in a table.

(b) Is the data consistent with a uniform probability of death from accidental fall over time? Justify your answer

with the results from an appropriate statistical test.

(c) Is there evidence of a seasonal pattern of deaths? Explain why.

Re: Please help me to solve this problem!!

Hey faranakf.

If you are calculating a proportion, then you need to supply what the data is in relation to (i.e. you have the deaths but how many people are considered each year? Is it the size of the total US population)?

Anyway getting the expectation of the number of deaths just uses the definition.

You should tell us what you've tried and what you're thinking.

1 Attachment(s)

Re: Please help me to solve this problem!!

These data follow a Poisson distribution based on following hypothesis test:

http://mathhelpforum.com/attachment....1&d=1349503427

Re: Please help me to solve this problem!!

It is not wise to just find the "best fitted distribution" (also that p-value is rather low).

The distributions are based on assumptions and knowing the assumptions means knowing the process, and knowing the process (or trying to understand the real process) is what it's all about: if you can relate the process of your data in any way to the process of a known distribution derived from its assumptions in a convincing way, you are going to be way better off understanding and putting into context the realizations of your sample data.

Fitting stuff without any context at all is very dangerous.

Re: Please help me to solve this problem!!

Actually that is the main problem that I have. The question doesn't provide the whole population so I don't know without it how can I compute the mean...

Re: Please help me to solve this problem!!

You can estimate the mean from the sample using the sample mean which is an unbiased estimator for the population mean.

1 Attachment(s)

Re: Please help me to solve this problem!!

1970 deaths data indicate a seasonal period=6 months and a crude ARIMA(6,0,0)(0,0,0) forecast analysis for 1971 summary is:

http://mathhelpforum.com/attachment....1&d=1349544178