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Math Help - Calculating Posterior Probability with two variables

  1. #1
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    Post Calculating Posterior Probability with two variables

    Hey Guys,

    Could anyone please help me out with this question?

    Calculate the posterior probability of patient having flu given cough positive and fever negative?

    Sensitivity of cough for flu: 60%
    Sensitivity of fever for flu: 70%
    Specificity of fever for flu: 80%
    Specificity of cough for flu: 50%
    Prior of flu: 10%


    Greatly appreciated!


    Rico
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  2. #2
    Senior Member MaxJasper's Avatar
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    Lightbulb Re: Calculating Posterior Probability with two variables

    Quote Originally Posted by rico View Post
    Calculate the posterior probability of patient having flu given cough positive and fever negative?
    Sensitivity of cough for flu: 60%
    Sensitivity of fever for flu: 70%
    Specificity of fever for flu: 80%
    Specificity of cough for flu: 50%
    Prior of flu: 10%
    Greatly appreciated!
    Rico
    P({flu})=.10

    P({cough}|{no$\_$fever})=\frac{.60+.80}{.60+.70+.8  0+.50}=.53846

    P({cough}|{flu})=p({flu})*P({cough}|{no\_fever})=.  053846

    double check this!
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  3. #3
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    Re: Calculating Posterior Probability with two variables

    Thanks!!
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