Hi everybody,

I'm newbie and I'm not expert in probability. a problem came to my mind and I have tried to solve it with Math, but I couldn't.
6 football teams are playing in a single-elimination tournament. 3 team will go to next round. Our country have 3 team in this tournament.
Hypothetically we have 2 situation and I want to know which one is better for our country base on probability.

first:
Our 3 teams play with other three teams ( so each team have 12.5 % chance !)

second:
two of our teams play together ( it means at least one of our teams with go to the next round)
and our third team play with one of the three other teams.

How can we deal with this problem.
BTW Math it's not my field but I really like it.

tanks in advance.