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Math Help - Conditional Probability

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    Conditional Probability

    The number of flowers N appearing on an apple tree is a random variable, with
    distribution P[N = n]=p^n . Assume that a
    flower turns into a fruit with probability Alpha (binomial distribution)
    Given that there is a number r of apples on the tree, what is the probability that originally there were n flowers on it?

    my thinking
    Conditional P[r apples / n flowers]=binomial distribution = P (r apples Joint n flowers)/P(n flowers)
    here I can get P (r apples Joint n flowers) in terms of the other two known expressions

    Conditional P [n flower / r apples] = P (r apples Joint n flowers)/P(r flowers)
    is there a way of calculating p (r flowers)? I cannot draw out the diff between venn diagrams of p (r flowers) and P[r apples / n flowers]
    Last edited by parklover; August 21st 2011 at 03:54 PM.
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