As no one else has replied i'll go out on a limb and assume that they dont understand your question either.
Can you re-phrase the question?
Hello, i hope i'm in the correct sub forum.
i have a question that is really giving me a headache - been trying for a long long time. although i am not a university student i am teaching myself what i think is university level stats. (year 1?)
i have this set of historical observations.
1/ occurs 393 times out of 443 trials. worth 1 point
2/ occurs 544 times out of 1011 trials. worth 2 points
3/ occurs 66 times out of 168 trials. worth 3 points.
4/ player scores 23 points a game average over 73 games.
i make a bunch of adjustments to all this (for opponents and many other factors) and i get that there will be 23.1 points.
my opponent thinks there will be < 25 points, 45.45% of the time. how do i work out what my prediction in points is for 45.45% and his prediction in points for 50%.
obviously this is not poisson, so i guess it can be solved using the binomdist function in excel? can any1 here help me please? i may be able to help u back in a useful way...
thanks for ur reply - sorry, i'll try again.
i am a professional trader in sports risk, i buy and sell bets. however i am having trouble pricing some markets.
there is a popular type called props, an example of which may look like: will a player score more than 23.5 points.
the implied probability from the odds is 43% YES (over 23.5 points) and 62% NO (under 23.5 points). notice this adds up to 105%. the extra 5 is called the overround or the books commission.
so the no-commision implied probability is just.
43*100/105 = 40.95 %
62*100/105 = 59.05 %
My calculations indicate the most likely outcome is 21 points @ 4.3%. less than 21 points is 48.2%. and over 21 points 47.5%
what i need to know is how to compare these numbers. i need to know how my probability calculations compare to the sportsbook's.
so what is the probability of getting over or under 23.5 using the probabilities that i have calculated.
what is the probability of getting over or under 21 using the implied no-commision probability from the sportsbook?
is there enough information here to get an accurate answer?
actually i need some more complex things done in the future (perhaps a weibull distribution). if any1 is interested, i would love to show a maths expert/professor that/how a great many sports markets are beatable with the right information.
its fairly valuable information and it might be a fun