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Math Help - can i use binomdist for this?

  1. #1
    May 2011

    can i use binomdist for this?

    Hello, i hope i'm in the correct sub forum.

    i have a question that is really giving me a headache - been trying for a long long time. although i am not a university student i am teaching myself what i think is university level stats. (year 1?)

    i have this set of historical observations.

    1/ occurs 393 times out of 443 trials. worth 1 point
    2/ occurs 544 times out of 1011 trials. worth 2 points
    3/ occurs 66 times out of 168 trials. worth 3 points.
    4/ player scores 23 points a game average over 73 games.

    i make a bunch of adjustments to all this (for opponents and many other factors) and i get that there will be 23.1 points.

    my opponent thinks there will be < 25 points, 45.45% of the time. how do i work out what my prediction in points is for 45.45% and his prediction in points for 50%.

    obviously this is not poisson, so i guess it can be solved using the binomdist function in excel? can any1 here help me please? i may be able to help u back in a useful way...
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  2. #2
    MHF Contributor
    May 2010
    As no one else has replied i'll go out on a limb and assume that they dont understand your question either.

    Can you re-phrase the question?
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  3. #3
    May 2011
    thanks for ur reply - sorry, i'll try again.

    i am a professional trader in sports risk, i buy and sell bets. however i am having trouble pricing some markets.

    there is a popular type called props, an example of which may look like: will a player score more than 23.5 points.
    the implied probability from the odds is 43% YES (over 23.5 points) and 62% NO (under 23.5 points). notice this adds up to 105%. the extra 5 is called the overround or the books commission.

    so the no-commision implied probability is just.

    43*100/105 = 40.95 %
    62*100/105 = 59.05 %

    My calculations indicate the most likely outcome is 21 points @ 4.3%. less than 21 points is 48.2%. and over 21 points 47.5%

    what i need to know is how to compare these numbers. i need to know how my probability calculations compare to the sportsbook's.

    so what is the probability of getting over or under 23.5 using the probabilities that i have calculated.
    what is the probability of getting over or under 21 using the implied no-commision probability from the sportsbook?

    is there enough information here to get an accurate answer?

    many thanks.

    actually i need some more complex things done in the future (perhaps a weibull distribution). if any1 is interested, i would love to show a maths expert/professor that/how a great many sports markets are beatable with the right information.

    its fairly valuable information and it might be a fun
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