Hello, i hope i'm in the correct sub forum.

i have a question that is really giving me a headache - been trying for a long long time. although i am not a university student i am teaching myself what i think is university level stats. (year 1?)

i have this set of historical observations.

1/ occurs 393 times out of 443 trials. worth 1 point

2/ occurs 544 times out of 1011 trials. worth 2 points

3/ occurs 66 times out of 168 trials. worth 3 points.

4/ player scores 23 points a game average over 73 games.

i make a bunch of adjustments to all this (for opponents and many other factors) and i get that there will be 23.1 points.

my opponent thinks there will be < 25 points, 45.45% of the time. how do i work out what my prediction in points is for 45.45% and his prediction in points for 50%.

obviously this is not poisson, so i guess it can be solved using the binomdist function in excel? can any1 here help me please? i may be able to help u back in a useful way...