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Math Help - Probability

  1. #1
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    Probability

    A college can admit up to 480 freshmen. The college accepts 650 students because it is known from past experience that approximately 70% of the accepted students actually enroll. What is the probabiliity that the college ends up with more students than it can accomodate?

    I know I will have to apply continuity correction here, but not sure what should my probability statement be.

    Should it be...

    Pr(K>480) = Pr(K>480.5) = 1- phi[(480.5-455)/std dev)] = ?

    How do I determine std deviation?

    Please assist.

    EXTENDED POST.............
    So Pr(S>480) => continuity correction => Pr(S>480.5) = Pr(Z>(480.5-455)/sqrt(650*0.7*0.3)) = Pr(Z>2.1826) = 1-phi(2.1826) = 1-0.9854 = 0.0146
    Last edited by DINOCALC09; November 24th 2010 at 05:46 AM.
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  2. #2
    Grand Panjandrum
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    Quote Originally Posted by DINOCALC09 View Post
    A college can admit up to 480 freshmen. The college accepts 650 students because it is known from past experience that approximately 70% of the accepted students actually enroll. What is the probabiliity that the college ends up with more students than it can accomodate?

    I know I will have to apply continuity correction here, but not sure what should my probability statement be.

    Should it be...

    Pr(K>480) = Pr(K>480.5) = 1- phi[(480.5-455)/std dev)] = ?

    How do I determine std deviation?

    Please assist.

    EXTENDED POST.............
    So Pr(S>480) => continuity correction => Pr(S>480.5) = Pr(Z>(480.5-455)/sqrt(650*0.7*0.3)) = Pr(Z>2.1826) = 1-phi(2.1826) = 1-0.9854 = 0.0146
    Looks OK

    CB
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