Thread: Probability

A college can admit up to 480 freshmen. The college accepts 650 students because it is known from past experience that approximately 70% of the accepted students actually enroll. What is the probabiliity that the college ends up with more students than it can accomodate?

I know I will have to apply continuity correction here, but not sure what should my probability statement be.

Should it be...

Pr(K>480) = Pr(K>480.5) = 1- phi[(480.5-455)/std dev)] = ?

How do I determine std deviation?

Please assist.

EXTENDED POST.............
So Pr(S>480) => continuity correction => Pr(S>480.5) = Pr(Z>(480.5-455)/sqrt(650*0.7*0.3)) = Pr(Z>2.1826) = 1-phi(2.1826) = 1-0.9854 = 0.0146

Originally Posted by DINOCALC09

A college can admit up to 480 freshmen. The college accepts 650 students because it is known from past experience that approximately 70% of the accepted students actually enroll. What is the probabiliity that the college ends up with more students than it can accomodate?

I know I will have to apply continuity correction here, but not sure what should my probability statement be.

Should it be...

Pr(K>480) = Pr(K>480.5) = 1- phi[(480.5-455)/std dev)] = ?

How do I determine std deviation?

Please assist.

EXTENDED POST.............
So Pr(S>480) => continuity correction => Pr(S>480.5) = Pr(Z>(480.5-455)/sqrt(650*0.7*0.3)) = Pr(Z>2.1826) = 1-phi(2.1826) = 1-0.9854 = 0.0146

Looks OK

CB