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Math Help - Probability Question

  1. #1
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    Probability Question

    You are evaluating 2 systems for a company. System 1 has 4 valves in sequence. If one fails, the system fails. The probability a value will fail is .01(1%)(assume independence)

    What is the probability system 1 will not fail?

    System 2 has 3 values. The probability a valve will fail is .4(40%)(assume independence).BUT in system 2, as long as one of the values does not fail, the system will not fail.

    What is the probability that system 2 will not fail?
    What is the probability that system 2 will fail?

    I tried using various numbers using the Bayes Theorem and tried to put actual numbers, but could not the right answer.

    Thanks,
    Shawn
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  2. #2
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    In system 2 assume that the valves are A, B, & C.
    It does not fail: 1-P(A^cB^cC^c)=1-(0.4)^3.
    Last edited by Plato; October 18th 2010 at 03:48 AM. Reason: correction
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  3. #3
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    according to your equation I get 0.784, but the answer in my answer sheet states .936. Something no right
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  4. #4
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    Your sheet is correct. I misread the problem.
    1-(0.4)^3
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