I have a question or problem to resolve and I am not an expert in math so if this isn't the right forum to post this, apologies.
How can we evaluate the probabilities of the result of a sporting event based on the current score.
Lets say the probabilities of team A vs. team B winning the event at the start were the following, team A 70% and team B 30% (No draw or tie possible).
The first team to score 21 points would win the match (no tie-breaks or win by 2 clear points rules)...
How could we calculate the relative probabilities of the outcome during the game as the points change...
For example, after 10 minutes of exciting play....
Team A 5-1 Team B...
what would be the probabilities of Team A winning considering it started the game with 70% probabilities and is now winning 5-1? etc...
The 3 variables would be.
- Starting probabilities
- total points needed to win
- Current score