I'm analyzing some data from online gambling sites.I'm trying to prove they are stealing the customers.
I'm not an expert in math ....just having "common sense" knowledge.
Here is the problem I need to solve:
I have a series of N independent event where I have a chance ( W[i] ) to win some money ( P[i] )
At the end of day my mathematical expectation is :
E= sum after i (W[i]*P[i])
In reality I will have won R dollars after these N independe events.
If N is big then R and E should converge somehow.
Is it possible to apply here some Standard deviation/Chebyshev's inequality/Weighted standard deviation to get some statistical interpretation about this?
I would really like a formula that will say to me something like this:
There is a 80% chance that the possible values of R to be in (E-x,E+x) range.