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**HMaoTw** Imagine that there is an unseen mathematical problem. I don’t know the exact problem but I do know that it is an addition of two real numbers. Therefore, I know that there are infinite possible answers but only one correct. Then an arbitrary number of people look at the problem and give me what they believe to be the correct solution. Based on their previous performance on comparable problems, I know how skilled they are, e.g. how likely the answer they gave is correct.

I have two sets, the first contains all the solution that have not been suggested (infinite) and the second containing all the solution that have been suggested. So, at the start, before any solutions have been suggested, I have 100% belief that the solution is contained within the un-suggested set and 0% belief that it is contained within the suggested set.

Then the first person suggests the solution ‘2’ and I trust them 85%. Therefore, I have an 85% belief that ‘2; is the correct solution and, moreover, I now belief that the suggested set has an 85% chance of containing the solution and the un-suggested set has a 15% chance of containing it.

I’ve got the bit down. I’m not sure how to update my beliefs once the next person comes along.