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Math Help - probability

  1. #1
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    probability

    Can anyone help me with this?

    It is common for public opinion polls to have a "confidence level" of 95%, meaning that there is a 0.95 probability that the poll results are accurate within the claimed margins of error. If six different organizations conduct independent polls, what is the probability that all six of them are accurate within the claimed margins of error? Does the result suggest that with a confidence level of 95%, we can expect that almost all polls will be within the claimed margin of error?

    Please help me! I need in depth answers and step-by-step so I can understand it fully.
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  2. #2
    MHF Contributor matheagle's Avatar
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    I don't agree with

    0.95 probability that the poll results are accurate within the claimed margins of error
    Either the parameter (WHICH is NOT a random variable) is in a confidence interval or it isn't.
    You can't say P(2<\mu<3)=.95
    since there is nothing random about 2, 3 or MOO.

    BUT, if these were really indep probability events, you would calculate (.95)^6
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