A seamstress works exclusively in one phase of the process of producing a garment. Exactly ½ hour delay to implement its work on garments. Each ½ hour passes a messenger to collect the clothes are ready and leave, by the way, new clothes them to the seamstress do its work. New sewing garments for the messenger is random at each visit is as follows: the
30% do not carry any, 50% of the time takes 1 and 20% of the time takes 2 garments. The messenger are instructed to never leave more than three pieces by the seamstress sew.
Calculate the percentage of time that the seamstress is idle. R// 14%.
The exercise provides the transition matrix:
I wonder if it is possible that calculated under the following process:
,
where, for example, is the probability that the messenger does not let clothes
given that the seamstress had no clothes ... and so on.
But I have problems to get these conditional probabilities can not remember, especially in the third line, which would be understood as:
= Probability of leaving nothing since there are two garments.
probability of leaving a given that there are two.
probability of leaving two since there are two.
likely leave three because there are two.
thank you buddy,
A greeting