# probably guilty

• Mar 22nd 2007, 11:54 AM
0123
probably guilty
I need your help with another problem... I would really appreciate it.

During a circumstancial process, n evidences with probatory value of 2% each are considered.
1) evaluate the probability P1 of guilty on the base of n=1 evidence
2) evaluate P10 of guiltyness on the base of n=10 evidences
3) calculate the minimal number N of evidences such that the probability of guiltyness exceeds 90%.

sorry for my bad English too...

Thanks a lot.
• Mar 22nd 2007, 12:04 PM
CaptainBlack
Quote:

Originally Posted by 0123
I need your help with another problem... I would really appreciate it.

During a circumstancial process, n evidences with probatory value of 2% each are considered.
1) evaluate the probability P1 of guilty on the base of n=1 evidence
2) evaluate P10 of guiltyness on the base of n=10 evidences
3) calculate the minimal number N of evidences such that the probability of guiltyness exceeds 90%.

sorry for my bad English too...

Thanks a lot.

I don't like this question, it is very close to being a prosecuters falacy. It also
seems to be making an unstated assumption that the "evidences" are independent.

RonL
• Mar 22nd 2007, 12:09 PM
0123
Quote:

Originally Posted by CaptainBlack
I don't like this question, it is very close to being a prosecuters falacy. It also
seems to be making an unstated assumption that the "evidences" are independent.

RonL

I simply translated the excercice I have been given but made no correction, just translated(in a perhaps bad way but..) what's wrong?