Thread: Conditional Poisson!

Hello,
By measuring pulses of uranium with a Geiger counter, those arriving to a rate of 2 per second. Measuring Plutonium, the arrival rate is 5 per second. Si durante dos segundos no se producen arrivos,

For two seconds if there are no arrivals,

What is the probability that uranium had been measuring?

I hope you or someone can help me, I still think that a conditional Poisson distribution is Erlang, but I'm not sure.

A greeting and thanks

Originally Posted by Dogod11

Hello,
By measuring pulses of uranium with a Geiger counter, those arriving to a rate of 2 per second. Measuring Plutonium, the arrival rate is 5 per second. Si durante dos segundos no se producen arrivos,

For two seconds if there are no arrivals,

What is the probability that uranium had been measuring?

I hope you or someone can help me, I still think that a conditional Poisson distribution is Erlang, but I'm not sure.

A greeting and thanks

Bayes' theorem tells you that:



where denotes no detections for two seconds.

You can calculate and from the given rates and the Poisson distribution.

and are the probabilities that each sample is choosen and I expect these are supposed to both be .

CB

Thank CaptainBlack's, I know and know how to work with the definition of conditional probability but does not know why I was messing,


A greeting

Sorry, but understand that is likely to be measuring uranium.

I do not understand your last sentence.

A greeting

Originally Posted by Dogod11

Sorry, but understand that is likely to be measuring uranium.

I do not understand your last sentence.

A greeting

You are not told the probability that U is chosen and we have to assume P(Pu)=1-P(U)

CB