P(X=k) = p(1-p)^k-1

if p have a uniform prior distribution on [0,1], what is the posterior distritubion of p? and what is the posterior mean?

Thanks!!(Evilgrin)

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- October 24th 2009, 10:59 PMcm917posterior distribution
P(X=k) = p(1-p)^k-1

if p have a uniform prior distribution on [0,1], what is the posterior distritubion of p? and what is the posterior mean?

Thanks!!(Evilgrin) - October 24th 2009, 11:19 PMmatheagle
The joint distribution of X and p is...

where 0<p<1 and x=1,2,3,...

In order to obtain f(p|X) you need the marginal of X.

NOW use the beta density http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_distribution

where x=1,2,3,...

This is a telescoping series that does sum to one.

Now divide and you should have that conditional distribution.