You win the lottery. The prize can either be awarded as USD1,000,000 paid out in full today, or yearly instalments paid out at the end of each of the next 10 years. The yearly instalments are USD100,000 at the end of the first year, increasing each subsequent year by $5,000; in other words you get USD100 000-00 at the end of the first year, USD105,000 at the end of the second year, USD110 000-00 at the end of the third year, and so on.

After some economic research you determine that inflation is expected to be 5% for the next 5 years and 4% for the subsequent 5 years. You also discover that real interest rates are expected to be constant at 2.5% for the next 10 years.

Using net present worth analysis, which prize do you choose?

Further, given the inflation figures above, what will the real value of the prize of USD1,000,000 be at the end of 10 years?