Hello,

Lets say i'm measuring the probability of something happening at different stages.

For x = 1 I know the probability +- 0% (exact)

For x = 2 x = 3 and x = 4 I know the probability +- 8%

How well would i be able to say what the probability is at x = 5? and x = 6? And even further? (maximum to x = 10)

Also, I expect the probability to decreases exponentially.

If someone could help me with this that would be really awesome.