# Probabilistic Model

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• Oct 19th 2009, 02:19 PM
morganfor
Probabilistic Model
How would one create a probabilistic model for the following scenario: the probability that the temperature will change in the next 5 minute interval is calculated. 23% of the time the temperature goes up, 30% of the time the temperature goes down and 47% of the time the temperature stays the same.
• Oct 20th 2009, 11:04 PM
CaptainBlack
Quote:

Originally Posted by morganfor
How would one create a probabilistic model for the following scenario: the probability that the temperature will change in the next 5 minute interval is calculated. 23% of the time the temperature goes up, 30% of the time the temperature goes down and 47% of the time the temperature stays the same.

\$\displaystyle t_{n+1}=t_n+r\$

where r is a RV with the required distribution (as you don't say naything about the sizes of the changes all we can say is that it is +/ve with prob 0.23, -ve with probability 0.30, and 0 with probability 0.47).

CB